Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science
- Volume 1
- Introduction
- Predictive Modeling Foundations
- Predictive Modeling Methods
- Bayesian and Mixed Modeling
- Longitudinal Modeling
- Volume 2
- Generalized Linear Model
- Extensions of the Generalized Linear Model
- Unsupervised Predictive Modeling Methods
-
Applications on Current Problems in Actuarial Science
- Chapter 8 - The Predictive Distribution of Loss Reserve Estimates over a Finite Time Horizon
- Chapter 9 - Finite Mixture Model and Workers’ Compensation Large-Loss Regression Analysis
- Chapter 10 - A Framework for Managing Claim Escalation Using Predictive Modeling
- Chapter 11 - Predictive Modeling for Usage-Based Auto Insurance
Series Goals
In January of 1983, the North American actuarial education societies (the Society of Actuaries and the Casualty Actuarial Society) announced that a course based on regression and time series would be part of their basic educational requirements. Since that announcement, a generation of actuaries has been trained in these fundamental applied statistical tools. This proposed two-volume set builds on this training by developing the fundamentals of predictive modeling and providing corresponding applications in actuarial science, risk management and insurance.
Predictive modeling involves the use of data to forecast future events. It relies on capturing relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables from past occurrences, and exploiting it to predict future outcomes. This two-set volume emphasizes life-long learning by developing predictive modeling in an insurance and risk management context, providing actuarial applications and introducing more advanced statistical techniques that can be used by actuaries to gain a competitive advantage in situations with complex data.
Target Audience — Professional Actuaries
This series is written for practicing actuaries who wish to get a refresher on modern-day data-mining techniques and predictive modeling. Almost all of the international actuarial organizations now require continuing education of their members. Thus, in addition to responding to competitive pressures, actuaries will need materials such as in this series for their own continuing education. Moreover, it is anticipated that this series could be used for seminars that are held for practicing actuaries who wish to get professional accreditation (known as "VEE" or Validated by Educational Experience).