Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science
 Volume 1
 Introduction
 Predictive Modeling Foundations
 Predictive Modeling Methods
 Bayesian and Mixed Modeling
 Longitudinal Modeling
 Volume 2
 Generalized Linear Model
 Extensions of the Generalized Linear Model
 Unsupervised Predictive Modeling Methods

Applications on Current Problems in Actuarial Science
 Chapter 8  The Predictive Distribution of Loss Reserve Estimates over a Finite Time Horizon
 Chapter 9  Finite Mixture Model and Workersâ€™ Compensation LargeLoss Regression Analysis
 Chapter 10  A Framework for Managing Claim Escalation Using Predictive Modeling
 Chapter 11  Predictive Modeling for UsageBased Auto Insurance
Chapter 3  Generalized Linear Models as Predictive Claim Models
Authors
Greg Taylor  University of New South Wales
greg_taylor60@hotmail.com
James Sullivan
sullivanjfp@gmail.com
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The present chapter is concerned with a dataset that is in fact far from conformity with the chain ladder assumptions. Its modeling requires a great deal more structure than provided by the chain ladder, so that informed decisionmaking will be achieved only by means of statistical methods. The chapter is concerned with the physical circumstances accounting for the breach of chain ladder assumptions, the recognition of these circumstances in the model formulation, and the representation of the resulting model in the form of a generalized linear model (GLM).